Wake me up when September begins
Rather than the late summer doldrums, August has proven unusually active. With various volatility measures starting the month at or near multi-year lows, last week’s geopolitical flare-ups drove some of the largest percentage jumps in these indices since the US election.
In an all too familiar pattern, market fear quickly faded as most asset classes have returned to levels prior to the tete-a-tete between the US and North Korea. As the attached table indicates, the initial movements towards lower yield, falling equity values and a weaker USD have been mostly been erased. Wider credit spreads and weaker commodities have yet to retrace all of last week’s losses.
While we seem to always be just a tweet away from another spike in volatility, looking towards September we provide the following risk guide of significant events for the market.
What to Expect from the FOMC on July 26th
– The next FOMC meeting to focus on inflationary concerns rather than mull further rate hike
– Discussion also likely to center on portfolio reduction strategy, but start date not expected
– Questions still remain over the removal of mortgage-backed securities from Fed balance sheet
The FOMC will meet next week for the first time since it hiked rates for the second time this year, while also affirming its desire to raise rates an additional four times through 2018.
Since that meeting, other central banks have provided hints that they may join the Fed in tightening credit conditions. At the ECB meeting presently underway President Draghi may signal a plan to begin slowing its massive asset purchase program.
These meetings come on the heels of a widely expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which surprised markets by maintaining a hawkish tone that pushed the odds of yet another hike this year to 66% from just 40% prior to the meeting.
These actions have led to the belief that central banks are approaching the tightening process in a coordinated manner, which is providing another leg to the reflation trade that began last year. The initial market reaction since late June has been to push global yields higher, add volatility into currencies, while generally providing support to risk assets.
Draghi Reflation Trade + Debt Ceiling Reminder
While overall we felt that the path for monetary policy was little changed after a series of speeches and chats from the world’s central bankers, the market took notice from a likely overly sanguine view that created heavy positioning across various asset classes. ECB President Draghi’s presentation at the ECB forum has been viewed as an indication that the ECB was turning more hawkish and preparing to withdraw market stimulus. This however has been the base case for many that expected the ECB to start reducing its asset purchases in 2018. Yellen’s speech was essentially a rehash of the FOMC presser, although we did note that she does not like negative rates, and still feels the Phillips curve is relevant. We also got hawkish rhetoric from the BOE and BOC which certainly has undertones of a global effort to push yields higher and possibly take the froth off of risk assets. Therefore, while we don’t view the policy path for the Fed or ECB changing much, a coordinated push is a new development that may remain theme for the remainder of the summer.
Bolton Global Capital ha sumado al equipo de su oficina de Miami a Euclides Moreno, quien mantendrá la denominación “The Moreno Wealth Management Group” con la que ya operaba anteriormente. Moreno ejercía de managing director en Merrill Lynch liderando una práctica con 650 millones en activos de clientes internacionales, que suponía 6,4 millones en ingresos para la firma, y un equipo de siete profesionales.
En esta nueva etapa, los activos de los clientes serán custodiados por BNY Mellon Pershing, plataforma a través de la cual tendrán acceso a mercados de 65 países, mientras que Bolton proveerá el back office, compliance y apoyo técnico al equipo de Moreno.
“Estamos muy orgullosos de que otro de los mejores profesionales se una a nuestra firma y estamos deseando apoyar el continuo crecimiento de su negocio”, declaró Ray Grenier, CEO de Bolton. La oferta de Bolton ya atrajo el año pasado a nueve grandes equipo de los principales bancos y broker dealers, lo que resultó en la transferencia a la plataforma de un total 1.500 millones en activos.
Antes de unirse a Merrill Lynch, firma a la que ha estado ligado durante 17 años, Moreno trabajó en el negocio bancario de su familia en Venezuela.
Senior international financial advisor Euclides Moreno, head of one of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management’s top Miami teams, has left after 17 years with the firm, Citywire Americas can reveal.
According to sources familiar with the situation, Moreno is in talks to join an independent broker-dealer.
Moreno’s group at Merrill Lynch manages over $800 million and has produced around $8 million annually, according to a source. It is understood that the remaining members of the seven-strong Moreno Wealth Management Group team have not resigned and continue with Merrill.
Merrill Lynch declined to comment on the departure.
Moreno joined Merrill Lynch in 2000 and advised both US and non-US clients, with a focus on Venezuela. Moreno’s exit follows that of a number of teams who’ve left Merrill Lynch since July 2015 after it refocused its non-resident client business and added a number of restrictions and requirements to its client onboarding process.
While Venezuela falls within the range of 29 countries Merrill Lynch still services, prospective clients in this country must invest a minimum of $5 million to meet new requirements. They would also have to visit their international advisors at least once a year in the US.
Merrill’s revamp has allowed for international broker-dealers and RIAs such as Bolton Global Capital, Investment Placement Group, Global Investor Services to earn a bigger slice of the international advisory pie since these change were announced. They’ve also benefited from large private banks like Credit Suisse and RBC moving out of this space.
However, just last week Merrill recruited Leon Friedlander, who also specializes in advising Venezuelan clients, from Morgan Stanley.
While the wirehouse saw a number of exits in the 18 months after its initial changes, the firm has been selectively recruiting and has announced two hires in the last two months.
May 28 Pershing Education and Development Series – Annuity Solutions for Fee-Based Advisors
Pershing’s Education and Development Series is a curriculum-based program designed to help you grow your business, offering insights from leading industry authorities and Pershing subject-matter experts on practice management, investment solutions and flexible technology.
Join us for our final May webcast on Annuity Solutions for Fee-Based Advisors
To Register: Click Here
Please share this invitation with colleagues who may find these presentations useful.
We look forward to your participation.
Pershing continues to seek new, innovative ways to collaborate across the BNY Mellon enterprise to create more value for your firm and your clients.
Today, we are excited to announce the combination of internal and external manager research functions of Lockwood, BNY Mellon Wealth Management and BNY Mellon Investment Management. The team will conduct manager research for our institutional, high net worth and financial intermediary customers. The team will leverage the investment management expertise of BNY Mellon, enabling them to draw on the best of BNY Mellon’s investment research and portfolio management processes in managed accounts.
The deeper universe of money managers available on the Pershing platform enhances the firm’s efforts to create and deploy tailored strategies to meet your needs. Pershing’s investment advice and technology solutions from Pershing provide maximum flexibility—enabling your firm to compete effectively in the investment advisory arena. And, our comprehensive platform will provide a single interface for all customers, with an enhanced proposal system, wealth reporting, trade processing and rebalancing tools, billing capabilities and much more.
The research alignment is another example of how Pershing draws on the broader BNY Mellon enterprise for your benefit. Pershing will continue to explore opportunities to further enhance value for your firm, help you compete more effectively and better serve your clients’ investment needs
Join us for our next webcast, Tax Exempt Investing, on Tuesday, December 18, 2012, from 4:15 to 5:15 p.m. (ET). This webcast, led by Sandy Motusesky, Director of Investment Solutions for Pershing, will examine the opportunities that investing in municipal bonds can provide for investors, particularly those in higher tax brackets.
The following investment experts will share their insights during this timely discussion as the fiscal cliff approaches:
- Jim Pass, Portfolio Manager, Guggenheim Investments
- Daniel Solender, Partner and Director of Municipal Bonds, Lord Abbett
- Christine Todd, President, Standish Investment Management
Please share this invitation and registration link with colleagues who would also find the presentation useful.
We look forward to your participation on December 18.
Pershing LLC, Bolton Global Capital and its affiliates do not provide investment, tax or legal advice. Information and content presented in this webcast are not intended or construed as an offer, solicitation or a recommendation to purchase any security. The information to be presented is not intended nor written to be used for the purpose of avoiding tax penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer. Individuals are urged to consult with their tax or legal advisors to understand the tax and related consequences of any actions or investments described in this presentation
Please join Pershing on Thursday, September 20, 2012 in their Lake Mary, Florida office to enhance your knowledge of fixed income products, applications and Pershing services. The curriculum includes:
- Basics of Bonds
- Fundamentals of Bond Pricing
- BondCentral® Use and Navigation
- Bond Strategies, Ladders, Barbells and Bullets
- Alternative Ideas: CMOs and Structured Products Barclay’s Structured Products
You will also learn how fixed income can help you grow your business.
Breakfast, lunch and refreshments will be provided. Space is limited, so please RSVP to confirm your registration.
We look forward to you joining us on September 20.
Note: This is an in-person event taking place in our Lake Mary, Florida office. Hotel and travel arrangements are the responsibility of the attendee. View a listing of area hotels and driving directions.
This workshop is eligible for 4 Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards (CFP® Board), 4 Cannon Financial’s Certified Wealth Strategist® (CWS®) and 4 Investment Management Consultants Association (IMCA®) continuing education credits. In order to receive these CE credits, you must attend all sessions.
Using Alternative Investment Strategies in Portfolio Construction Webcast
Join us for our next webcast, Using Alternative Investment Strategies in Portfolio Construction, on Tuesday, August 28, 2012, from 4:15 p.m. to 5:15 p.m. (ET). This webcast, led by Sandy Motusesky, Director of Investment Solutions for Pershing, will focus on various alternative investment vehicles and their proper use in building a balanced-risk portfolio. Additionally, this webcast will cover how the correlation of various asset classes in different market environments can be used to mitigate risk.
You will hear from these investment experts:
- George Avery, Product Manager, Invesco Ltd.
- John Dolfin, Director of Research, Steben & Company
- Stephen Scott, Portfolio Manager and Investment Committee Co-Chair, Van Eck Securities Corporation
Please share this invitation and registration link with colleagues who would also find the presentation useful.
We look forward to your participation on August 28.